One extra dollar of income.
Over $50,000 in lost health subsidies.
The 400% FPL cliff came back in 2026 and it is still there for 2027, while premiums rise a second year in a row (median about +15%). Cross the line by $1 and your premium tax credit drops to zero, with no phase-out. This page shows the dollar size of that cliff for every state and household type, for 2027 and 2026. No login. No personal data. Just the table.
The cliff, ranked by state
Annual premium tax credit lost by earning $1 past 400% FPL — benchmark silver plan, state averages. Pick your household:
Every state, side by side
Annual dollars lost at the cliff for the year picked above. Click a column header to sort. Red = above the national average for that column. Last column: 2027 average rate change (* = still proposed, otherwise final).
2027 rate changes: healthinsurance.org weighted averages, updated Sep 25, 2026. State averages weighted by county plan selections (KFF). Your county can differ — in our spot checks against the official KFF calculator, state averages landed within ~2% of county figures.
Zoom in on your state
Get next year's numbers
The 2027 columns above now use KFF's final benchmark premiums. Drop your email and you'll get one message when the 2028 numbers are out (and nothing else).
Is your insurer leaving the marketplace?
Cigna is leaving all 11 of its marketplace states, and at least a dozen other insurers are pulling out of specific states for 2027. If you got a letter saying your plan ends December 31, doing nothing means HealthCare.gov picks a replacement plan for you. My plan ends Dec 31: what happens if I do nothing →
Just got laid off? Start with your runway, not the cliff
Before optimizing MAGI, answer the bigger question: how long does the money last? Our free companion calculator gives you three numbers in 60 seconds — money-lasts-until age, your state's ACA cliff, and your safe annual withdrawal. Open the Runway Calculator →
Or read the worked example — Laid off at 51 with $800K: the three numbers to check before you panic — including the state-by-state table of what the cliff costs at 55, 60 and 64, and why it gets bigger the closer you get to Medicare.
Why this hits early retirees hardest
If you retired before 65, the marketplace is usually your only real option until Medicare — and premiums are age-rated: a 64-year-old pays about 3× what a 21-year-old pays for the same plan. Meanwhile your income isn't a paycheck; it's a number you partially choose each year through withdrawals. Roth conversions, capital gains, dividends and interest all land in MAGI. One oversized conversion, one surprise fund distribution in December, and a household that planned on $8,800 of premiums is suddenly paying over $60,000.
The MAGI levers people actually use
Educational, not advice — each has real trade-offs. This is the checklist the FIRE forums keep re-deriving:
- Size Roth conversions against the 400% line, not just tax brackets. In 2027 the cliff is usually a far bigger marginal hit than the next bracket.
- Keep a MAGI buffer for December surprises (mutual-fund capital-gain distributions are the classic cliff-pusher).
- Spend from cash / basis first in years you need subsidy eligibility; realize gains in years you don't.
- HSA contributions reduce MAGI. Marketplace bronze and catastrophic plans stay HSA-eligible in 2027, and the 2027 limit is $4,500 self-only / $9,000 family (+$1,000 at 55+).
- Harvest losses to offset gains that would otherwise push you over.
- If you can't stay under, overshoot deliberately — once past 400% there's no additional cliff, so bunch income into one "off" year and defend the next year instead.
Methodology & sources
- Benchmark premiums, 2026: KFF State Health Facts, 2026 Marketplace Average Benchmark Premiums: second-lowest-cost silver for a 40-year-old, county-selection weighted.
- Benchmark premiums, 2027 (final): KFF State Health Facts, Marketplace Average Benchmark Premiums, 2027 (read Nov 2, 2026). Before KFF published, this page used an estimate (2026 benchmark × each state's 2027 average rate change from healthinsurance.org); the final numbers replaced it.
- Applicable percentage: IRS Rev. Proc. 2026-26: at 300–400% FPL the benchmark costs 10.22% of income in 2027 (9.96% in 2026, Rev. Proc. 2025-25). Above 400% FPL no credit exists.
- Poverty guidelines: 2026 HHS/ASPE guidelines for 2027 coverage (2025 guidelines for 2026 coverage), incl. separate Alaska & Hawaii tables.
- Age rating: CMS default federal age curve; state-specific curves applied for DC, MA, NJ, UT. New York and Vermont are community-rated (no age variation) and use family-tier pricing — couple = 2.00× and family = 2.85× (NY) / 2.81× (VT) the single rate, per NY DFS standard tiers and Vermont Health Connect rate sheets.
The formula
cliff = 12 × household_benchmark_premium − 10.22% × (400% FPL income) (9.96% for 2026)
Household premium scales the state age-40 benchmark by each member's CMS age factor. Verified against the official KFF calculator on three test cases (TX single-40 at 399%/401%, WV couple-60 at 400%): formula matched to the dollar; state averages sat within ~2% of county-level figures.
This page is educational data journalism, not tax, legal, investment, or insurance advice. Figures are state averages for the benchmark silver plan; your county, plan and circumstances will differ. Verify your own numbers at Healthcare.gov or the KFF calculator before acting.