Laid off? Check three numbers
before you panic.
Forced early retirement comes with one compounding question: does the money hold? This page answers it with the three numbers that matter — how long your savings last, where the ACA health-insurance cliff sits for your state, and what you can safely spend per year. Everything runs in your browser. Nothing you type leaves this page.
Your situation
Five inputs. Round numbers are fine — this is a first-pass sanity check, not a financial plan.
Your three numbers
Model: spending rises with inflation; returns are applied yearly and spending withdrawn at year-end. The three scenarios use 0%, 1% and 2% real (after-inflation) returns — roughly 3%, 4% and 5% nominal with 3% inflation. Past performance guarantees nothing; sequence-of-returns risk is real and not modeled here.
Why the ACA cliff is the hidden fourth number
Between a layoff and Medicare at 65, the marketplace is usually your only real health-insurance option — and in 2026 the enhanced credits are gone. Cross 400% of the federal poverty level by one dollar of MAGI and the entire premium subsidy disappears. For a 60-year-old couple that cliff is worth up to $47,000 a year depending on the state. Severance, 401(k) withdrawals, Roth conversions and capital gains all count toward MAGI — which is why the withdrawal plan and the health-insurance plan are the same plan.
We built a full state-by-state atlas of the cliff: ACA Cliff Atlas — every state, every household type.
What people in this exact spot tend to do next
- Bridge health insurance first — compare COBRA (usually 18 months, full price) against a marketplace plan with subsidies, which a low post-layoff MAGI often unlocks.
- Map income to the 400% FPL line before taking severance lump sums or 401(k) withdrawals — the cliff is often a bigger marginal hit than any tax bracket.
- Recompute the runway at real spending, not pre-layoff spending — most households find 10–20% of spend was job-related.
- Delay Social Security decisions — claiming at 62 is permanent; run the numbers before locking it in.
- Don't panic-sell — the sequence-of-returns math punishes selling everything after a bad month far more than it punishes holding through one.
Get the worked examples
We're writing up full worked cases (51 with $800K, 55 with $1.2M, couple 58 with $600K) — withdrawal order, ACA positioning, and the spreadsheet behind this page. Drop your email and you'll get them when they're live. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Methodology & sources
- Runway model: deterministic real-dollar projection. Each year: portfolio × (1 + real return) − annual spending. Real return scenarios of 0% / 1% / 2% correspond to ~3% / 4% / 5% nominal returns under 3% inflation.
- Safe withdrawal: 4% of starting portfolio (Trinity-study heritage rule of thumb), with 3.5% shown as the conservative variant.
- ACA cliff data: same engine as the ACA Cliff Atlas — KFF 2026 benchmark premiums, IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25 applicable percentages, 2025 HHS poverty guidelines, CMS age curves. State averages; your county will differ.
Assumptions & limits
Single portfolio bucket (no tax-lot or account-type modeling), spending indexed to inflation, no Social Security or pension income (add them by reducing "annual spending"), no sequence-of-returns simulation. ACA scenario uses the nearest age band (40/50/55/60/64); couples use the older partner's band. This is a sanity check, not a plan.
Educational tool, not tax, legal, investment, or insurance advice. Numbers are estimates from public data and simplified models. Verify against Healthcare.gov, the KFF calculator, and a fee-only advisor before acting.